Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk Analysis – Characterisation and Methods of Treatment

The fundamental problems related to uncertainty in quantitative risk analyses, used in decision making in safety-related issues (for instance, in land use planning and licensing procedures for hazardous establishments and activities) are presented and discussed, together with the different types of uncertainty that are introduced in the various stages of an analysis. A survey of methods for the practical treatment of uncertainty, with emphasis on the kind of information that is needed for the different methods, and the kind of results they produce, is also presented. Furthermore, a thorough discussion of the arguments for and against each of the methods is given, and of different levels of treatment based on the problem under consideration. Recommendations for future research and standardisation efforts are proposed. © Copyright: Brandteknik, Lunds tekniska högskola, Lunds universitet, Lund 2002. Department of Fire Safety Engineering Lund University P.O. Box 118 SE-221 00 Lund Sweden [email protected] http://www.brand.lth.se/english Telephone: +46 46 222 73 60 Fax: +46 46 222 46 12 Brandteknik Lunds tekniska högskola Lunds universitet Box 118 221 00 Lund [email protected] http://www.brand.lth.se Telefon: 046 222 73 60 Telefax: 046 222 46 12